1
Duke
32-2·ACC·East Region
Championship
19%
Final Four
52.9%
Elite 8
79%
Sweet 16
95.5%
Scouting Report
Duke is the public's darling and the model's trap. Yes, 32-2 looks dominant. But Caleb Foster is OUT, Ngongba II is questionable, and this team just lost its floor general heading into a tournament where guard play decides everything. The 28% of bracket makers picking Duke to win it all are paying full price for damaged goods.
Key Player
Cooper Flagg
Injury Status
Caleb Foster OUT, Ngongba II Questionable
Upset Risk
high
Path to Championship
Round of 64
vs 16 Siena
99.7%
win probability
Round of 32
vs 8 Ohio State
95.4%
win probability
Final Four
vs 1 Arizona
51.5%
win probability
Pool Value Analysis
Public Pick Rate
28%
Expected Pickers (100-person pool)
~28.7
EV Multiplier
3.48x
Duke is a strong value pick because their championship probability is high relative to public ownership.
Rating Details
Efficiency Rating
34.8
Notes
Caleb Foster OUT, Ngongba II questionable