2
Houston
28-6·Big 12·South Region
Championship
6.8%
Final Four
27.4%
Elite 8
54.9%
Sweet 16
89.2%
Scouting Report
The best value play in the tournament. Houston gets to play their regional games at home — an absurd structural advantage the committee handed them. Their defense is elite, their coach is elite, and now they get home cooking. The 2-seed is a lie. Treat them as a 1-seed with a discount.
Key Player
J'Wan Roberts
Injury Status
Healthy
Upset Risk
low
Path to Championship
Round of 64
vs 15 Idaho
97.1%
win probability
Round of 32
vs 7 Saint Mary's
78%
win probability
Final Four
vs 1 Michigan
42%
win probability
Pool Value Analysis
Public Pick Rate
8%
Expected Pickers (100-person pool)
~8.9
EV Multiplier
11.21x
Houston is a strong value pick because their championship probability is high relative to public ownership.
Rating Details
Efficiency Rating
32
Notes
Path advantage still matters, but the market cooled into the second tier